FXUS64 KHGX 070502 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1102 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2023 A prevailing east wind has developed across the area this afternoon thanks to a gradual change in the synoptic pattern, with the eastward jog of broad surface high pressure in place over the Central/Southern Plains promoting the return of low-level moisture transport. Winds should continue to shift towards an onshore orientation overnight and into tomorrow, bringing about the return of some additional cloud cover while setting in motion an increase in moisture availability ahead of the approach of a cold front this weekend. Only a slight increase in overnight lows can be expected this evening with most locations still sitting in the 40s, while highs tomorrow should approach 70 in many locations. Perhaps a more notable indication of the pattern shift will be the concurrent increase in dew points, which should break into the 50s/low 60s by late tomorrow afternoon. Slight tightening of the surface pressure gradient will strengthen winds somewhat on Thursday night, which will continue to promote both WAA and moisture transport, thus resulting in fairly widespread cloud cover. Given these factors, lows should remain confined to the upper 50s to near 60. Synoptic models continue to show the approach of a weak midlevel shortwave tomorrow that could result in some isolated showers, mainly near the coast and offshore. Rainfall chances will not increase in earnest until Friday. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2023 Mid/upper ridging and LL ridging will become collocated over the southeast CONUS on Friday. Enhanced LL onshore flow will bring a surge of LL PWAT into SE TX while shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft move over our area. The NBM thinks we are crazy for keeping PoPs in the forecast on Friday while global models suggest we could increase PoPs further. Given the expected moisture levels as well as the likely lift from the shortwaves, we continue to think there's at least a chance of isolated to scattered showers on Friday. PoPs on Friday are generally in the 20-30% range. Friday will be a muggy day with highs in the 70s and dew points well into the 60s. Meanwhile, a deep layer trough will induce LL cyclogenesis over the Texas Panhandle on Friday. The resulting gradient will increase our winds from the south to southeast. As the low strengthens and pushes northeastward, an associated cold front will push southeastward toward our CWA. Current FROPA timing is estimated to be Saturday afternoon. The forecast continues to feature showers and thunderstorms associated with the front. Shear and even some instability parameters continue to appear favorable for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. However, capping could be an issue on Saturday. The general synoptic set up favors a better chance of severe weather to our north and east across the Ark-La-Tex region and southern Mississippi River Valley. That being said, there is still enough of a risk of strong thunderstorms on Saturday to warrant our attention. We will keep you posted! Conditions ahead of the front on Saturday are likely to be mild and humid with temps well into the 70s and dew points possibly reaching 70. CAA riding on gusty NW winds in the front's wake will bring much colder conditions by Saturday night. Lows over most of the CWA are forecast to be in the 40s. Sunday's highs are expected to struggle to warm out of the 50s. By Sunday night, much of the CWA away from the coast and outside the urban heat island is expected to be in the 30s. Early outlook for Monday-Tuesday indicates not as cool temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Self && .AVIATION... (03Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 934 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2023 Light SE winds and VFR conditions will prevail into Thursday evening. Decks fill in around 3500 to 5000 ft overnight with MVFR CIGS possible during the early morning hours of Friday. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2023 Light to moderate east-northeast winds today will veer to the southeast on Thursday. These winds will increase Thursday night into Friday while becoming more southerly. Showers are possible on Friday as a few upper level disturbances move overhead. Seas will gradually increase on Friday into early Saturday. A cold front is expected to push offshore on Saturday. Strong winds and increasing seas are likely in its wake. Saturday evening through Sunday morning are expected to feature Small Craft Advisory level winds and seas. Gusts to gale force are possible offshore. Winds and seas are expected to gradually decrease on Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Light onshore flow returns on Monday, possibly becoming more light to moderate by Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 44 70 59 77 / 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 45 69 59 75 / 0 0 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 56 66 63 70 / 0 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self