FXUS64 KHGX 012321 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 621 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The immediate term remains poised to be a fairly active one, with several rounds of thunderstorms expected to impact SE TX over the next 36 hours. This evening, we've already started to see the development of isolated supercells to our W and NW as a shortwave trough in the midlevels pushes through the Southern Plains. As continued development occurs this evening, it's possible a few isolated severe storms move into the Brazos Valley. The primary threats from any storms overnight will be the possibility of large hail and strong wind gusts. Localized heavy downpours will also be possible in any storms that do develop. After sunset, convective development will remain on a downward trend ahead of a resurgence on Friday. Overnight lows tonight should generally be confined to the upper 60s to near 70. An active weather day is expected tomorrow with the potential for severe storms increasing as a surface cold front pushes slowly into the region. A conducive environment is expected ahead of the front, with abundant near-surface moisture, SB instability in excess of 2500 J/kg, and effective layer shear over 30 knots. PVA ahead of the frontal passage itself should be sufficient to trigger the development of isolated strong storms late tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest risk area along and north of the I-10 corridor. Some of these cells could become strong to severe, again bringing the threat of hail and strong wind gusts. As the front pushes through the area during the evening and through the overnight period, an organized line of thunderstorms will continue to pose the risk of strong wind gusts. Furthermore, with the boundary expected to travel relatively slowly, we will need to closely monitor the possibility of training cells, which could produce areas of street flooding. Tomorrow is a day to remain weather aware, having multiple ways to receive warnings and remaining vigilant of travel conditions. Highs tomorrow should again reach the mid/upper 80s, with overnight lows dropping a few degrees as mild northerly winds behind the front bring in slightly cooler and drier air. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 The cold front is expected to move into the coastal locations sometime Saturday morning and we could still see some lingering showers during the morning to early afternoon hours inland. Periods of showers could persist for much of the day across the coastal locations and the waters. Throughout the day, drier/cooler air will be filtering into Southeast TX. This will lead to cooler daytime temperatures, with highs likely to be in the upper 70s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and the lower 80s elsewhere. On Sunday, conditions will improve as an upper level ridge begins to build across the region. We could still see a few showers but they should remain mostly over the Gulf waters and coastal locations. The highs will be in the lower 80s areawide. Mostly tranquil conditions will prevail into Monday as the ridge dominates the local weather pattern, however, we could see rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday as low level moisture and instability ramps up and several upper level weaknesses pass through. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 A cluster of thunderstorms is currently on approach to CLL and may bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail if it manages to hold together. Also including VCTS around UTS as well with some sporadic convection developing around the airfield over the next few hours. These showers/storms are not expected to make it further south than these two sites, but MVFR ceilings will filter in at all sites during the overnight hours and extending into Friday morning. VFR ceilings return by the mid-morning along with isolated to scattered showers. Going into the early afternoon, high-resolution model guidance reflects convection beginning to develop around 18-20Z mainly near and north of I-10. These storms will be occuring ahead of and along the boundary of an approaching frontal boundary that will push through the area on Friday evening/night. Periods of heavy rain are expected near and north of the I-10 corridor through the afternoon, and this convection will gradually make its way towards the coast by Friday night. Southerly to southeasterly winds will be breezy again on Friday with gusts around 20-25 kt in the afternoon. Winds will be becoming northerly in the wake of the front, but this is just beyond the scope of the current TAF package. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend. Winds are expected to strengthen early next week and relax by mid week. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed at times. Chance for showers and storms over the waters can be expected daily through the next several days. Risk for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches may continue through the weekend. Please avoid going into the waters if Red Flags are present along the beaches. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 69 85 63 78 / 20 80 70 20 Houston (IAH) 72 86 67 82 / 20 70 60 40 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 71 81 / 20 40 60 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Cotto (24) AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Cotto (24)